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摩通私銀:若市場將日央行溝通解讀為偏鴿 恐再掀日圓、日債淡倉
日本央行本周議息。摩根大通私人銀行亞洲利率外匯策略主管唐雨旋表示,若市場將日本央行的溝通解讀為偏鴿,恐再度引燃日圓及日本國債的淡倉,令市場穩定措施的成本愈加高昂。儘管如此,日央行在溝通上通常不傾向鷹派,尤其考慮到近期通脹趨於穩定,以及高企能源價格帶來的增長下行風險。市場將密切解讀記者會上的每一句話,特別是日央行如何界定通脹與增長前景。 她指,宏觀環境依然複雜...
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摩通私銀:若市場將日央行溝通解讀為偏鴿 恐再掀日圓、日債淡倉
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日本央行本周議息。摩根大通私人銀行亞洲利率外匯策略主管唐雨旋表示,若市場將日本央行的溝通解讀為偏鴿,恐再度引燃日圓及日本國債的淡倉,令市場穩定措施的成本愈加高昂。儘管如此,日央行在溝通上通常不傾向鷹派,尤其考慮到近期通脹趨於穩定,以及高企能源價格帶來的增長下行風險。市場將密切解讀記者會上的每一句話,特別是日央行如何界定通脹與增長前景。
她指,宏觀環境依然複雜,輸入型通脹或將持續頑固,4月CPI的回落主要受補貼推動,代價高昂且料僅屬暫時。同時,本地消費依然疲弱,實質工資增長有限;長端債息持續結構性上升,進一步加重財政壓力。與此同時,美元兌日圓徘徊在160附近,套利交易盤在大規模干預後再度累積。
日圓套利交易的再現,反映了實際利率差距及更廣泛的結構性問題。雖然日圓已不再是主要貨幣中利率最低者,但實際政策利率仍為負值。隨能源價格上升,國際收支與貿易條件或將持續惡化,昂貴的能源補貼亦令財政動態惡化。政策正常化步伐極為緩慢,兩年間僅累計85個基點,若此趨勢延續,日圓與其他主要貨幣的負利差可能進一步擴大。(ha/a)
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