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Fitch Cuts 2026 Global Econ Growth Forecast to 2.4% on US-Iran Conflict; Raises China Growth Forecast to 4.6%
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Fitch Ratings warned that the oil crisis triggered by the US-Iran conflict is weighing on the global economic outlook. In response to rising energy costs and inflationary pressures caused by persistent supply disruptions, Fitch lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 ppts to 2.4%. Fitch raised its forecast for the average price of Brent oil this year to USD87 per barrel from the previous USD70 per barrel, reflecting a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although a ceasefire agreement has been reached between the United States and Iran, negotiations remain highly challenging, and reopening before July appears unlikely. Under an adverse scenario in which the average oil price reaches USD100 per barrel this year, equity markets could fall 10% and credit conditions could tighten. This would imply that US economic growth could slow to 0.8% over the next 12 months, eurozone growth to 0.3%, and China’s growth to 3.4%. Under its base case scenario, Fitch raised its China economic growth forecast by 0.3 ppts to 4.6%, supported by stronger-than-expected performance in 1Q26 and resilient exports. However, Fitch lowered its growth forecasts for the United States and the eurozone by 0.3 ppts and 0.4 ppts to 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively. Fitch currently expects the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged this year before resuming rate cuts next year, while the European Central Bank may raise interest rates by 25 bps in June this year. (mn/u) Auto-translated by AI This article was automatically translated by AI, the original language version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. More Details
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