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<Research>Citi Predicts MO Gaming Industry's 1Q25 EBITDA to Drop 6% YoY; Top Picks GALAXY ENT/ MGM CHINA
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Citi wrote in its research report that Macau's GGR showed steady growth in 1Q25. As the introduction of new hotel rooms is expected to drive up costs even though the industry's reinvestment seems to remain at a reasonable level, the broker predicted operating expenses to increase during the period, and the operating de-leverage of which may lead to a 6% YoY decline in the industry's 1Q25 EBITDA to US$1.916 billion.

Citi's top picks for Macau casino stocks were GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) and MGM CHINA (02282.HK), while its global top pick was Las Vegas Sands (LVS.US).

Related NewsUBS Expects MO Casinos' 1Q25 Luck-Adj. EBITDA to Dip 4% QoQ
Citi initiated a downside 30-day catalyst watch on SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK). However, it kept a Buy rating on the group, expecting it to become a strong competitor in the premium hotel market after the full opening of Londoner Grand.

The broker also upgraded Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.US) and WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) from Neutral to Buy, and trimmed SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)'s target price from $2.05 to $1.7 to reflect more conservative EBITDA margin forecasts.
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