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<Research>G Sachs Envisions Stable CN Commodity Supply & Demand Fundamentals, Turning Optimistic on Cement & Coal
Recommend 46 Positive 108 Negative 35 |
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Goldman Sachs has released a report on Chinese commodities predicting that China's commodity demand will enter a more stable phase this year, with annual growth rates mostly ranging from -1.3% to 2%, gradually recovering quarter by quarter starting 2H25. For most commodities, the supply-demand balance fundamentals are stable, and the macro environment appears favorable. Given last year's strong spot prices and excellent stock performance, however, the marginal change in supply outlook will determine the future direction of prices and profit margins, and they will be dominated by three key themes: supply discipline and response, anti-involution, as well as M&A and asset injections. For individual commodities, Goldman Sachs is turning more optimistic about cement and coal and more cautious about steel and aluminum. Its views on copper and gold remain positive, whereas it holds a cautious stance on lithium and paper packaging. Stock│Investment Rating│Target Price (HKD) ANGANG STEEL (00347.HK) | Neutral -> Sell | 2.4 -> 1.2 MAANSHAN IRON (00323.HK) | Neutral -> Sell | 2.1 -> 1.9 CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) | Neutral | 32 -> 36 CHINA COAL (01898.HK) | Sell -> Buy | 6.5 -> 11.5 YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK) | Neutral | 7.8 -> 9 CONCH CEMENT (00914.HK) | Buy | 31 BBMG (02009.HK) | Neutral | 0.7 CNBM (03323.HK) | Buy | 6.7 -> 6.5 CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313.HK) | Buy -> Neutral | 2.1 -> 1.5 WESTCHINACEMENT (02233.HK) | Sell | 1. 4 -> 1.3 CHALCO (02600.HK) | Buy -> Sell | 7.6 -> 9 CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK) | Neutral | 20 -> 28 JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK) | Buy | 25 -> 45 MMG (01208.HK) | Buy | 5.1 -> 10 ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK) | Buy | 37.5 -> 39.5 ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK) | Buy | 25 -> 38 GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK) | Sell | 32 -> 35 TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK) | Sell | 24.5 -> 26 ND PAPER (02689.HK) | Sell | 3.8 CHINA XLX FERT (01866.HK) | Neutral | 8.5 AAStocks Financial News |
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